Proof that the Russian election meddling (and the Trump collusion) is bullshit

I have a pretty bold claim: I can disprove the biggest conspiracy theory of modern history. The theory says that Donald Trump is not a legitimate president of the USA, because he didn’t win a fair election, as a foreign power interfered with the election process. Some versions of the theory say that Trump willingly coordinated, others claim that he is a Russian asset, while others say that he is a useful idiot with no personal wrongdoing, but either way, he did not win the election, therefore he is not president and should be removed from the office he unlawfully holds.

Of course I cannot have internal information, so all I can do is believe the people who do and they all – intelligence community, media, politicians – say that there was such meddling. Who am I to say they are all wrong or liars? The answer is that I don’t listen to what they say, but watch what they do:

  • President Obama handed the power over to Trump and went to jet-ski with Richard Branson. “Yeah, he will destroy everything I’ve built and he is a Russian asset and cheated the election but who cares, the beach awaits” – must have been his thoughts.
  • Hillary Clinton ceded the race and went to sell books. She didn’t litigate like Al Gore. She didn’t demand recount. She didn’t go to exile and declare herself the true president. “Putin took my rightful job and will destroy my homeland, but hey, I might get to the NYT bestseller list, so all is fair”
  • John Podesta just folded his company and disappeared after a lifetime of beltway politicking without any campaigns, protest organizing or botched robberies. “what is better time to retire than the fall of democracy?!” could be his motto.
  • All the Democrat and Never-Trump republican congressmen and senators showed up for work and keep showing up, negotiating over various bills from tax cuts to environmental protection regulations without addressing the “fact” that the president is illegitimate. There are no impeachment attempts, no shutting down the government, no filibuster, no talking 8 hours for democracy on the floor. “Hey, he is a traitor, but if I can get my bill to deregulate tobacco advertisement, I sure vote for his evil agenda written in Moscow” – can be their thought process.
  • The community organizers, groups and “the resistance” proved multiple times that they have some impressive numbers. They flooded the terminals against the Muslim ban. They flooded the streets in pink hats protesting disgusting statements on women, they flooded the borders and ICE offices over family separation. But to save democracy itself from Putin’s puppet who did all these?! Not much. Why there are no nationwide protest against the illegitimate president?
  • The above could be told for liberal judges. They stalled Muslim ban, family separations, DACA deletion and many other Trump policies. Them being unconstitutional and finally 8/9-0 destroyed by the supreme court didn’t bother them, their goal was clearly to win time and slow down Trump. But for some strange reason, none of them tried to stop or delay the inauguration or depose Trump after he was in office. Why?
  • Finally, the “secret society”, the intelligence agents who found the evidences of meddling and collusion. When they realized that the republic they’ve sworn to serve is in grave danger, they … wrote reports, filed them, maybe leaked to some journalists and went on with their lives. They didn’t hold press conferences. They didn’t became Edward Snowden before nor after the election. They didn’t even become desperate and tried to assassinate the tyrant. In this hour of unprecedented attack on America, the head of the “secret society”, Andrew McGabe was most interested in … retiring with full benefits.

The thing is that while everyone is yelling “this is not normal” and “Russia meddled”, no one is doing anything about it. They do the very opposite of “this is not normal”: they carry on as normal. If you’d just see actions and no words, you wouldn’t be aware that anything is out of order.

So my evidence is simple: no one powerful or informed believes that there was meaningful Russian meddling with the election (with or without collusion), evidenced by their complete lack of action. They just lie because they hope that dumb people believe it and vote against Trump candidates in midterms and send them campaign support “because Russia”. It’s just a media smear campaign that no relevant person takes seriously.

Advertisements

Mistaking incompetence for politics

WordPress offers blogs you don’t follow based on what you wrote, in hope you find something interesting. After writing about Jessica Price, I got this recommendation between the followed blogs:

sjw

The post on the left is intersectional feminist bullshit. It’s not my opinion, the author identifies herself (I hope I don’t misgender) “speaker at the intersections of faith and gender justice”. That’s some epic level SJW.

The post itself is retarded. It lists doctors making mistakes and attribute it to them not caring for women, dismissing their symptoms and pain. The obvious idea didn’t occur to her that these doctors just sucked and would have sucked with a male patient too. If someone misdiagnose endometriosis for an STD, that’s not toxic masculinity but toxic stupidity. Every year in the USA, one of the most advanced countries and definitely the one which spends the most on health care, between 100000 and 210000 people die in medical malpractice. No, I didn’t add too many zeroes, medical malpractice is the third highest death cause (and those morons at BLM whine about “police malpractice” that cause 0.001x the deaths).

But no, despite these obvious evidence that medical staff makes mistakes often, our SJW must see some anti-woman conspiracy, obviously committed by “an older white man”. Stupid SJWs!

You know what’s outrageous? That wordpress.com is pushing SJW agenda, forcing me to read this complete nonsense, clearly with the aim to convert harmless gamers looking for info about GW2 lore into SJWs. This is evil politicking by the tech companies. Don’t you agree?!

Well, if you do, you are just as dumb as the SJW who wrote the article. It’s much more likely that WordPress association software is incompetent, simply saw the term “feminism” in my post, was unable to see the context and gave me a feminist post. Remember when I was writing about cheaters in PUBG and they fed me posts about people who cheat on their wives? It was funny.

The World is usually not conspiring against you. Most people who wrong you are not your enemy, just morons or slackers. Coming after them with righteous anger is a perfect way to waste your time that you could spend on something productive, like learning basic medicine so you can ask intelligent questions to your doctor.

100000000 useless credits

I have trouble understanding the (real world) economics of World of Warships. It’s a free to play game with microtransactions. If you play a battle, you get credits and XP, but also spend credits. The game has a subscription for about $10/month that increases gains by 50%. You can also buy more XP and credits with paid consumables and directly from money.

The “problem” is that I’m sitting on 100M credits without any idea what to spend it on. Sure, I have a subscription, but once it’ll run out, I won’t renew it because my ships are already maxed out, my captains soon will so I won’t even use the XP boost anymore. Nor I will buy consumables. Currently I buy a consumable that increases captain XP by 50%, that costs $0.02/battle, approximately $0.07/hour. I doubt they get rich on that and even it won’t last. As soon as my captains are all maxed, I won’t pay anything and play only in ranked seasons.

So I don’t really get why did they design the credits economics the way they did. In World of Tanks you lose credits with T9-10 tanks even if you’re good and subscribed. That made sense. The system of Warships does not.

Now they introduced new resources, coal and steel. You get these by playing and can buy useful items for them. I already got two engine boost improvement, and plan to get more. However I don’t understand why the new resources. They are not coming from the shop and they are not credits. The game already has a shop and an in-game currency, why having two new?

I seriously doubt they know what they are doing.

.

PS: “ks” means “king of sea”, right? Because what else my teammates would call me?
ks

Camps, firings and victories

Let just say I didn’t become too popular among my “friendlies” with my position that Jessica Price didn’t deserve firing. My post over the gamergater reddit got removed for “trolling”. Now the busy gamergaters are pointing out the double standard of journalists who celebrated the firing of the Subnautica guy and are outraged over the firing of the GW2 guys. Yet they fail to realize that they do the exact same thing. One of my oldest followers practically called me a cuckservative.

Sometimes I wish I was a social, mindlessly joining a camp, believing that “we” are good and “they” are bad and every defeat is because of evil conspiracy and every victory is an act of God.

However these camps won’t win. Good methods win. Logic wins. And going after the civilian life of a political opponent (may that be firing, digging up personal dirt, kicking her out of a restaurant) is a very bad method. It doesn’t damage the political idea, nor the person’s ability to fight for it. It just makes him hate us more.

Jessica Price spent most of her time developing video games. That was her day job. When she was off the clock, she spewed SJW nonsense. People didn’t like it and – to quote the classic – got out, created a crowd and pushed back on her, telling she’s not welcome anymore, anywhere.

Let’s not contemplate on stuff like “Jessica is human too”. I understand (though completely disagree with) the resentment among my friendlies that the SJWs never treated us as humans, therefore “deserve” no better treatment. Instead, let’s see what will happen with Jessica. She can’t make video games anymore, she won’t be hired at any studio because of her huge baggage. Except of course outright SJW places. She’ll either join with some SJW “art” studio creating games or films or comics or whatnot or she’ll join an outright SJW activist group making speeches and videos about patriarchy or white privilege full time.

If “we” don’t plan killing every single SJW, we must answer the question where should they go. My answer is clear: to a civilian, productive life. Sure most of them are uneducated (SJW studies don’t count any more than Scientology seminars) and can only work in blue collar stuff. But Jessica could work on video games, so she was right where we wanted her: making something that sells on a free market.

Please spare me from the “she wasn’t fired because of her ideas but because she insulted a customer”. Her SJW ideas directly command her to be dismissive towards white males. For her, being nice to white males is like making a gay cake for a Christian baker. Forcing her to act against her beliefs is equal to banning her beliefs. Guess what, she refused to, doubled down and escalated, like anyone with beliefs would do. The solution isn’t trying to break her, but the opposite, trying to lure her away from politics completely. Let her make video game dialogs instead of political slogans!

.

PS: clarification for the slow: unlike the “high ground” conservatives, I do not suggest to hold back on SJW groups and institutions. Gerrymander, pack courts, filibuster, litigate and spy your heart out! I suggest to leave the SJW individuals alone when they are not SJW-ing, just living their lives.

PS2: after the Trump-Putin presser I gave in to the guilty pleasure of reading liberal twitter accounts. It’s better/worse than election night.

Finally, the definitive answer about Warships ranked

I was pretty disappointed in not finding definitive link between play time and rank so I kept looking, this time putting the horse before the cart. If we look for multiple factors, we must first find unrelated factors. Winrate isn’t unrelated from battle count, since the lower the winrate, the more battles you need to gain the same rank. XP and damage aren’t unrelated either because of the tier switch. Those who played lots of battles in T10 will have higher XP and damage than those who played only in T8. But frags should be unrelated. Is it? To see, first I’ve split the 37K players in EU season 9 into 10 groups by frags and 10 groups by battle count, trying to create somewhat equal groups. If I’m right, there won’t be any pattern:

defi1

There are some overpopulated areas (most notably the low battle, high winrate corner where sealclubbers resided), but generally the grid is neutral. Battle count and frag count does not create large, correlating areas, they are pretty much unrelated. But to make sure, here is a linear fit between them, with absolutely horrible correlation:
corel

Now, with two independent variables, we can look for the result, how they contribute to rank, calculating the average rank of the groups of players defined by the above grid:

result

One rarely sees so perfect correlation. You need both enough battles and high frag rate to reach good rank. No matter how good you are in one field if you lack in the other. So the definitive answer is that casuals likely won’t rank out, but no-lifers with bad skills neither.

Finally, a personal note. My results were 42 battles, 0.93 frags. This places me to the last column, 4th row. The average rank of that group is 9.8, so my rank (10) is exactly where it supposed to be. Since my frag rate is already top 10%, all I have to do is play more battles next season.

Update: the standard deviations of the groups:
sd
It’s between 1 and 3 everywhere, meaning that approximately 2/3 of the players are 1-3 rank away from the value defined by their frag and battle count. Since the matching brackets are 5 rank wide, this SD is pretty good. The high battle count rows are on the wider SD zone, so the population is more diverse there, but still within a bracket range.

World of Warships ranks and casuals

I received the download of the whole EU 9th season ranked participants from an anonymous commenter who only left the enigmatic message “Maxim as usual”. The question was how does rank relate to playtime. I separated the players into groups by played battles and ranks to create this grid:

battrank

The diagonal is undeniable. Clearly the higher the play count, the better the rank becomes for most players. More than half of the rank 1 players are in the final and largest playtime group and more than half of this group is rank 1 or 2-5. So Stawek indeed seems right, casual players with only a few games a day won’t rank out and most of them are on low ranks.

However more can be said on the low and mid-end. Rank 10 was reached by large groups of casual players, proving that it’s possible with even 1-2 games a day. Rank 6-9 is practically evenly distributed among the battle groups. If we only know that a guy is rank 6-9, we can’t guess if he plays once a day or all day. There are 500+ guys who managed to reach the same rank as I did by playing 5x more battles.

So this post wasn’t as definitive as I’ve expected. I can’t say “ne-ne-ne-ne-ne-ne”, nor I can say “yes, you were right”. It’s somewhere in-between. The conclusion is at best “you need to play a lot to have good rank, but playing a lot doesn’t guarantee you get there”.

Probably the main problem here is self-selection. I mean if someone fails to progress, he’ll likely give up and go back doing randoms instead of keeping trying. We can’t just force every player to play ranked no matter what to determine how many would still be worse than rank 15 after 200 games.