There is an agreement between the two methods in that if we look at the previous game, it predicts the next one. It gives 54-57% winrate after a won game and a 43-47% winrate after a lost game. They also agree that Win-Win predicts Win and Lose-Lose predicts lose. They disagree with the Win-Lose prediction though. Finally, the proper method says that the first game of the session has the same winrate as the games after wins. Ergo, there is no downside interrupting a “winning streak”, it seems there are no winning streaks, just losing ones. The win-chance after a win is just the win chance.
From this I take away a very simple rule: one hour off after a defeat. It helps if the problem was me (tired, distracted), if the problem was the immediate team (hating) or if the problem is the meta (too many destroyer players for example). As the above result shows, there is no downside of taking a break.
Let’s see the intersession correlations. There were 60 sessions recorded with 280 games. Their outcomes are:
- 19 times a loss session was followed by loss
- 7 times a win session was followed by a win
- 9 times a loss session was followed by a win
- 7 times a win session was followed by a loss
- Sessions could be neutral (like WWLL) and those aren’t counted
Again we see clearly not random amount of loss-streaks. These mean longer, whole-day trends, so as an auxiliary rule, if two sessions ends in negative outcome, a much longer break is needed.
I’m sure that such stop-loss methods will greatly increase my winrate.