Finally, the definitive answer about Warships ranked

I was pretty disappointed in not finding definitive link between play time and rank so I kept looking, this time putting the horse before the cart. If we look for multiple factors, we must first find unrelated factors. Winrate isn’t unrelated from battle count, since the lower the winrate, the more battles you need to gain the same rank. XP and damage aren’t unrelated either because of the tier switch. Those who played lots of battles in T10 will have higher XP and damage than those who played only in T8. But frags should be unrelated. Is it? To see, first I’ve split the 37K players in EU season 9 into 10 groups by frags and 10 groups by battle count, trying to create somewhat equal groups. If I’m right, there won’t be any pattern:

There are some overpopulated areas (most notably the low battle, high winrate corner where sealclubbers resided), but generally the grid is neutral. Battle count and frag count does not create large, correlating areas, they are pretty much unrelated. But to make sure, here is a linear fit between them, with absolutely horrible correlation:

Now, with two independent variables, we can look for the result, how they contribute to rank, calculating the average rank of the groups of players defined by the above grid:

One rarely sees so perfect correlation. You need both enough battles and high frag rate to reach good rank. No matter how good you are in one field if you lack in the other. So the definitive answer is that casuals likely won’t rank out, but no-lifers with bad skills neither.

Finally, a personal note. My results were 42 battles, 0.93 frags. This places me to the last column, 4th row. The average rank of that group is 9.8, so my rank (10) is exactly where it supposed to be. Since my frag rate is already top 10%, all I have to do is play more battles next season.

Update: the standard deviations of the groups:

It’s between 1 and 3 everywhere, meaning that approximately 2/3 of the players are 1-3 rank away from the value defined by their frag and battle count. Since the matching brackets are 5 rank wide, this SD is pretty good. The high battle count rows are on the wider SD zone, so the population is more diverse there, but still within a bracket range.