9 games in World of Warships

last9
rankout

Sure, some luck was needed, but I was “unlucky” for weeks. What made the difference is that I damned everyone’s advice, put back the unique upgrade and the 20km torpedoes. Also, I started using a new strategy on Hotspot:
hotstrat

I have lot of data to analyze. I also realize that 14 pages worth of players ranked out before me (out of 340 pages of participants, 1300 pages of total EU players), and I needed bizarre amount of battles (686), so I’ll probably need one more season before I can show that my new Shima (+anti-CV Grozovoi) strategy works and permanent page can be made.

Using the 12km torpedoes, while giving me a rank loss in general, was beneficial as I learned how the “usual” DDs work and what just seemed luck earlier with 20km is now based on knowledge and can be reproduced.

For now I will make posts to discuss elements of the future guide. Later. This was quite an adventure.

.

PS: after I wrote and read and did chores, I had to log back and play a random battle with my newfound love, Grozovoi. I once again found evidence that random battle players are not less skilled than rank 2-5 ones and bringing an AA specced Grozovoi into battle isn’t the best idea:
littlegro

Author: Gevlon

My blog: https://greedygoblinblog.wordpress.com/

22 thoughts on “9 games in World of Warships”

  1. The difference was the best players ranking out over the weekend which improved your relative standing. Grozovoi made very little – only a few games and awful stats of 0.25 frag and 20k damage. You were carried there.

    R2-5 players are on average better than randoms. What you claimed before was that R 23-11 players are better.

    I don’t understand how can you see this season as anything but a failure.

    You didn’t break the meta. You didn’t find any brilliant strategy. You didn’t keep your 62% WR from previous season. You just crawled through the mud to get to R1 in 5 times as many games as the best players.

    How do you evaluate your old claims?
    “I had 62% WR in Ranked, ranked is all that matters, therefore I’m a great player”
    “R11 players are top 5% so must be very good. Winning against them shows I am very good”
    “I am very good and only achieve 50% in Randoms, therefore Random matchmaking is rigged”
    “My strategy is better than other strategies”
    “I can win consistently with no skill, based on my strategical thinking only”

    How about my claims?
    “R23-11 at the end of the season is a bunch of failures and worse on average than Randoms”
    “Shima is a poor ship”
    “Your strategy worked so well only because the very bad players in R11 and below suicided en masse by following the prevalent strategy”
    “There are no cheap tricks in WoWs that will allow you to skip the learning curve”

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  2. @Stawek: I had 75% winrate with the Grozovoi. Could it be just luck? Sure, as the sample is small (8 games). If you assume 50% true winrate, the chance of winning 6/8 is 11%. Could happen? Sure. But the chance of I’m doing as I planned and we win is more likely than being bad AND lucky. My stats are irrelevant, that’s the whole point of the current CV meta: everyone’s stats are irrelevant besides the carrier. I aimed an succeeded to decrease the performance of the enemy carrier by killing his planes and making him waste drops. Every time he drops on me and fails is a time when he doesn’t do 50-60K damage to a battleships. Also, I took their caps, forcing them into attacking or lose on points.

    I had 51.6% winrate with Shima. It’s clearly not stellar, but above 50% and with the extreme sample size, it’s surely not luck. Ergo, I’m better than the average ranked player, including the R2-5 bracket. Later data will show that my star saving rate was very low, way below the random 16%.

    -“I had 62% WR in Ranked, ranked is all that matters, therefore I’m a great player”
    I ranked out. I’m int the top 1% of the players.

    – “R11 players are top 5% so must be very good. Winning against them shows I am very good”
    Still true. Your error is of bias: as you ranked out yourself, you do not accept R11 players as “very good”, despite they are still top 5%. It’s like a billionaire saying “this dude has only one Ferrari, he is poor”. Numbers are numbers. Top 5% is top 5%.

    -“I am very good and only achieve 50% in Randoms, therefore Random matchmaking is rigged”
    I long redacted this claim and claimed that the Random and Ranked games are simply uncorrelated, so Random results are simply irrelevant: https://greedygoblinblog.wordpress.com/2018/07/25/random-and-ranked-games-are-unrelated/ It CAN be rigging, I believe it’s rigging, but it’s irrelevant. What’s relevant is that random battles are a joke.

    – “My strategy is better than other strategies”
    I had to refine my strategy multiple times. I indeed did not expect the different meta of R5 and weekends. But at the end, I ranked out.

    – “I can win consistently with no skill, based on my strategical thinking only”
    I ranked out with horrible stats in two ships, both ignoring aiming, angling, knowing armor values or anything. Shima: “bring yellow pie to white pie” Grozovoi: see planes, press DefAA. Everything else is strategy.

    That said, I admitted in the post that I’m not satisfied with the detours and my pace in ranking out. But next season I will rank out much faster.

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  3. I am not arguing whether you are a good player or not.

    I am arguing that you didn’t add anything to the game and strategy at all. No special tactics, no tricks, no brilliant insights. Your results aren’t different from any other reasonably smart and dedicated player. Your performance has not vindicated anything you’ve written here in the last few months.

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  4. @Stawek: one, I analyzed and will analyze winning and losing streaks. Proving that recent games have a predicting value for the next game is definitely new and valuable.

    Two: I didn’t even wrote any strategy guide that needs to be “vindicated”. So I’m not sure what are you arguing with here.

    For this season “being top 1% player” is enough. I learned a lot. I will post my strategy guide-preview as normal post for further discussion. Then next season I’ll play it. If I get some stellar result, it works. If not, not, I’ll have to settle that I’m just another top 1% WoWs player. But of course I will work on it. Especially the Grozovoi. I’m bringing it to normals as we speak, to max out its captain.

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  5. You aren’t top 1%.
    This is a 3-dimensional equation. Rank achieved, the number of games played and when those games were played.

    You spent 500 games in R2-5. This clearly indicates that you are about average for that bracket.
    R2-5 are about 12% or so of players who played ranked at all (in the last season) and we have to assume that a number of those never reached R5 because they didn’t have the time to play 100 or so games required to do it. That puts you in about top 10%.
    Also out of all players who played as many games as you or more, 1 in 9 reached R1.

    You may get bonus points for playing bad ship with bad strategies.

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  6. In that case, you aren’t 1%. You are 0.000000001 % because you are better than the 7 billion people who never even played WoWs.
    Considering that there is possibly an infinite number of living creatures in the Universe, and all but 1300 of them are worse than you, you are clearly a GOD of WoWs.

    You can only include the people who played the same game with the same constraints.
    For example, if you take 290 players with most played games, their games average will be 680, like yours. Out of those people, 50 reached R1, 1 in 6. Not 1 in 100.

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  7. @Stawek: techincally, it’s true that I’m in the top 0.00001% (just that many zeroes) of the mankind in WoWs. But games are regularly calculated to players, because it shows if the game itself is popular. I’m definitely the first man on the planet to build the Eiffel tower from my own frozen poop if I choose to, but that proves nothing because all the rest of the people didn’t even think about trying it.

    However every single WoWs player thought about ranked as it’s clearly offered, they play the game, they just choose not to play ranked. Ergo, they are responsible for their CHOICE of not playing ranked, instead fooling around in coop or randoms. They play the game, just not competitively (like playing with their poop, but without forming it into anything worth mentioning).

    I don’t really get what point you want to make. I however have the feeling that you are upset that I clearly disproved one thing: that “There are no cheap tricks in WoWs that will allow you to skip the learning curve”. If nothing else, I proved that playing Shimakaze (which has near zero ship learning curve) and playing a lot allows you to skip the learning curve.

    Hey, I didn’t even know that Worchester has hydro until someone told me, because I usually didn’t hang around in its range. I have no idea what Zao is good at, nor I care. I can’t even tell what’s the top speed of Gearing. And I have the exact same medal as you. That must be hard to swallow. But to grow, you must accept the truth: according the game systems, I’m just as good as you.

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  8. Jesus, that’s so utterly wrong what you told here.

    1. Ranked is not competitive. Its just a grind. Everybody can get rank one if he’s willed to play hundreds of hours within two months.

    2. Let’s assume a game lasted 15 min. That means you played wows for roughly 3/hours a day on average in ranked. How on earth could you claim that’s “cheap” and “skipping the learning curve”?

    3. Even if i’d agree that ranked is competitive – i’d evaluate your succes with any other proven strat to go to rank 1. And in this case your strat is garbage. Wrong ship, lackluster stats (stats matter here as you get more xp while trying to win thus increasing chances if not losing your star). And wrong attitude. It’s like you are saying: I couldnt care less and dont rtfm. I develop everything again. But you took three times longer than the avg rank 1 player.

    Conclusion: you went an extra mile to grind to a big target. Grats to that. But all your effort in wows is the equivalent of farming mobs in wows to get gold at 10k/ hour. And that’s by using grey mobs so you don’t have to learn any rotation.

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  9. @Chewiecide: some people get higher rank, some people don’t. That’s competition.

    You need to maintain positive winrate or properly high star saving rate to get ahead. Simply losing a lot won’t get anyone ranked out.

    2: I didn’t claim it’s “cheap”, I claim that it’s skipping “learning the game” as it is understood among the “PvP skill” people.

    3: You have a fundamental error here. Of course developing something from scratch took much more time than just implementing the accepted canon. The point is that now I have something that has a chance to shine next season. Someone who just followed the herd and tried to aim better doesn’t even have the chance. He’ll be just as good/bad as he was before.

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  10. Jesus, man, you are completely delusional.

    You did the same as every other Shimakaze player, no different at all. It isn’t a cheap trick to play 700 games. 200 hours spent is anything but cheap. You are the top 93rd player in “having the time to play hundreds of games” skill, which puts you squarely in 0.004% of players in this regard.

    People don’t get to choose spending 2 hours every day for 6 weeks. They either have the time to do it or they don’t.

    There are only 4000 people who played 200+ games out of which 600 got to R1. That’s 15%, not 1%.

    Compare yourself to people who actually participated in the competition, not to those too busy to even try.

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  11. @Stawek: I never took part in an official tennis competition. Therefore I can claim that the World Champion is no better than me in tennis, because he never defeated me (or people who defeated me).

    Ranked is the official competition of World of Warships. I ranked out. I’m better than any player who didn’t. Maybe I’m only better in no-lifing, but that only means that WoWs is a shitty grinding game and you shouldn’t play.

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  12. You can claim that you are better at tennis than Federer but this is a predictive claim. Can you predict on the basis on your claim the likely outcome of your tennis game against Federer?

    You are confirmed better than any player who played 680 games and didn’t get to R1. There are 89 of them. Everyone else is either worse than you or didn’t have enough time and you can’t be certain which it is.

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  13. Again -you used the most common starter guide on DDs – cap torp spot and don’t fight in the shima.

    This is not optimal so even a unicum “skill” player would need way more games to rank out instead if he used optimal ships/plays.

    You drastically overestimate the skill level needed for aiming in wows. And you don’t know that as you played only shima. Now you pretend that you found gold just because you ranked out. Ranked is not competitive or the real official mode of wows. It’s a grind & time sink. Look at it as a 7v7 random instead of 12v12. Obviously your impact is higher but still you got carried way more than you think given your pace / results.

    If you want to beat competitive meta, play clanwars. That could prove something but you would have to go into social hell.

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  14. Go play against him and prove it.

    There are many players in ranks below R1 who did go and play against you and beat your ass. They just didn’t beat your ass enough times to grind the stars.

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  15. Still you didn’t break the meta or identified anything new than proving:

    Anybody can rank out in a bad ship with bad strat and not caring about any theorycraft if he plays enough? I don’t get your point on the next season, too:

    You’d still bring a Shima knife to a gunfight. Your groundlaying assumption that rank 1 proves anything is wrong: all your previous projects showed the „clever“ time saving way to achieve the same results in less time or even better results. Nobody needs a „how to rank 1“ guide as anybody interested in it with enough time would get way better tips than „go 20km torps Shima“. What you could add is: „how to rank 1 wit less than 250 games“. That would be a game changer. The thing is: that’s possible only over skill in wows – e.g skill in the sense of you can’t copy paste it and make exactly the same outcome without learning. It’s hardcoded in the game. RNG, DPM, healthpools, map size vs. speed blocks you from winning 7v1. That’s why cvs need a fix.

    And to your approach: concept of „how to improve your winrate“ in wows is a steady guide on en forum since beta. I do see you are following the same basic guidance = stay to one ship and some others. But that’s it. Really nothing new.

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  16. @Chewiecide: Please note that on THIS Monday I was on rank 7. I ranked out from there on Wednesday. Everything before that was trying out new things, even things I suspected to be stupid (like rushing for Sleeping Giant A mid door).

    I saved the debriefing screen of every battle, will post them.

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  17. I predicted your raise after the weekend based on your stats and the fact that so many others were reporting losing streaks. It wasn’t your new strategy, it was the changing player pool after some good players pushed to finish the season during the weekend.

    You are adding “I changed the strategy for a successful one” claim post factum. You’ve been talking about “successful” strategies all the time, though, so we can pretty much discard this one as well on the basis of broken clock fallacy.

    Chewiecide: it isn’t true that everybody can rank out if they grind hard enough. Out of 290 players with the number of battles comparable to Gevlon only 52 ranked out. This means that 82% of players didn’t have the skill to do it despite having the time to grind.
    The most important skill in WoWs is map awareness (map strategies are very simple and one can just follow the crowd, generally). A task as complex and dynamic can be considered an IQ test so there will be people who just can’t do it. (if the season was long enough everybody would rank out eventually, as even the bad players become the best when everybody in front of them ranks out)

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  18. Well, first of all, congratulations for Rank 1!
    Now I am patiently waiting for an in-depth analysis to find the best winning strategy.
    If possible, any advice for Cruisers, baattleships and Carriers would be appreciated…

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  19. @stawek. Sorry for being imprecise. Please see my “can” as a possibility. While the chances might be low, it´s not impossible to do so. I saw a pic of somebody ranking out with 1.6k games and 46% WR. weird winn/loss streaks might happen.

    I do agree to all what you´re saying regarding map awareness. Thus my post on “you can´t break the meta in WoWs” – as the one dominant skill is map awareness. And this is something you can´t condense in a guide & copy/paste. Or the guide, especially written only, would be so complex nobody could follow it without having the same IQ needed to get map awareness due to training.

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