Casuals in WoWS ranked

Stawek came with an interesting idea: ranking out is not limited by skill, but by playtime. As gaining enough stars with a good but not top 10 winrate takes hundreds of games, ranking out takes so many hours that casual players just can’t commit. To analyze this, I’ve checked the rank 10 players – who according to this theory – couldn’t rank out because of lack of time and if the season was much longer, they could probably do so.

They start at page 132 on the WoWS numbers 9th season rankings and end on page 238. Not being able to download all pages and not wanting to wait for someone to do it for me, I manually copy-pasted page 132, 142 … 232 and 238 to EXCEL to see how they did. I put the players into 5 groups by increasing winrate and compared them to the 10 groups created for the 1-5 ranked players when doing the star saver mythbusting:

ranks

It is clear that the top ranked players played more than those who got stuck at rank 10. But it’s also visible that the worst 20% of rank 10 players played more than the best 20% of rank 1-5 players, so there is a significant group of “hardcore baddies” in low rank and a significant group of skilled players who could rank out with limited playtime.

So there is no clear outcome on the positive side of the theory. You clearly need to be the best of the best to rank out with 20-30 hours of playing, the norm is 50-60 hours. However playing 10 hours a week is far from being excessive even for a family person.

The negative side (people with low ranks are just casuals) on the other hand is decisively defeated by the huge battle count difference between the groups. There are players who spend 5x more time till rank 10 than others. Please note that the data is itself skewed. It doesn’t contain those who passed rank 10, just those who are finished there. So we don’t see those who had 60%+ winrate until 10 and kept going, just those who stopped for some reason.

More detailed statistics could be made if someone would be so good in making scripts to download all 9th season pages and create an excel with the columns “name”, “battles”, “winrate”, “rank”, “average XP” and “average frags”, now that the season is over and the data is final.

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Author: Gevlon

My blog: https://greedygoblinblog.wordpress.com/

16 thoughts on “Casuals in WoWS ranked”

  1. @Gevlon

    “ranking out takes so many hours that casual players just can’t commit.”

    Do you think the skill level among casuals is limited by playtime, or that the ranking process requires more playtime to where skill doesn’t matter? It seems a bit dubious to indicate that casuals cannot acquire the skill needed to rank out, especially for those who were around for the entire season. With what you have presented for this game, it seems that stats are improved based on the number of games that a person can play. Does it really matter if the number of games played is distributed across more days in the season?

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  2. @Noguff: the site only records those who has 1000+ random battles. That’s over 200 hours. I don’t think there is anyone in the database who didn’t have the time to have the skill.

    The question is “do they simply suck or they don’t have the time during the short season to compete”

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  3. for the stuff you are interested about. you really should at least be capable of a simple loop that iterates 132 to 238 and concat a string together that ANY program of your choosing can download. This is the simplest glue.

    because I’m linux infested I tend to fall back to cURL or wget because it’s easily available in any distribution package repository, meaning it is very easy to install (e.g. debian variants as root: apt-get install wget curl)
    Any shell script will do for what you want. But please go ahead and use something more like a dynamic scripting language that is more sophisticated and better documented for example python, perl or ruby. But any linux shell like bash will be more than enough.

    If you are windows bound. wget has windows exe binaries https://superuser.com/questions/25538/how-to-download-files-from-command-line-in-windows-like-wget-or-curl
    and the more sophisticated languages have http libraries for downloading stuff.

    if you really have to cmd this (no windows powershell, python or cygwin (linux shell for windows))
    for /l %i in (132,1,238) do \path\to\wget -O “season-9_sort-current-rank_%i.html” “https://wows-numbers.com/season/id,9/?order=current_rank__asc&p=%i”

    This is very much self-explanatory for anyone who has some excel fuu like you. but to state it anyway.
    for /l %i in (132,1,238) do — iterates 132 in 1 steps until 238 and places the current iteration value in variable %i
    \path\to\wget — you will have to replace this with the actual path to a windows wget.exe you have installed somewhere
    -O — is the wget argument to give the output filename
    last “” pair — tells wget the url to download.

    here bash variant (after installing wget)
    for i in {132..238} ; do wget -O “s9_sort-current-rank_${i}.html” “https://wows-numbers.com/season/id,9/?order=current_rank__asc&p=${i}” ; done

    and for anything else. really it is two searches away because the problem splits into two question
    “python simple iteration”: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/4436240/python-simple-iteration
    “python simple http download”: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/22676/how-do-i-download-a-file-over-http-using-python

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  4. First of all, stop using the R10 stats. Because of the irrevocable and Tier change this season, R10 is meaningless. Use R11 and R9.

    Now, to get back to the original topic. Assuming one is perfectly average and has a 50% win rate while saving the star 1/7th of the time they earn 7 stars per 100 games. It takes 40 stars to rank from 10-1 giving us 500 games or so. Another 15 stars to get into R10 from R15, making the total some 700 games. If your “casual” player is just an average guy he has zero chance of getting to R1, 700 games over 6 weeks is 15 games, some 4 hours a day at least. If they play that much they aren’t casuals.

    There are very few people with so many games played, though. The reason being that the game level changes, drastically, over the course of the season. The second hardest rank is R13-R11 on the first day of the season which has every R1 player from the previous one. The actual hardest rank is the R2-R5 bracket a few days after the season starts, which contains all the best players from the previous season’s R1s. I don’t use stat monitors but it could be observed by the colours of people’s clan tags, corresponding to their clan’s CB league. They were all pink and green, meaning Hurricane and Typhoon leagues – the best players of the 7v7 Clan battles. There would be players with well-known clan tags (like OMNI or TTT) in almost every game I played so early in the season.

    What it means in practice is that people stay at a bracket playing at 49-50% WR until all the players better than them rank to higher bracket (or, in case of R1, leave the season). Then their win rate increases to 55% or so, they advance to the next bracket and get stuck again. I observed this multiple times while chatting with my clan mates who got frequently frustrated with lack of progress. I observed it on myself, too, in previous ranks. 50% win rate means half the games were played at 47% with zero progress and the other half at 53% when all the stars were earned. Yet, at the end of the season, we only have 1 number of average 50%. Well, humans have one testicle and one ovary, on average.

    Rank is skill-limited but the limit changes as the season progresses. One must be above average to advance, AT THE TIME THE GAME WAS PLAYED IN THE BRACKET IT WAS PLAYED.
    The second limit on the rank is the hard requirement of about 150 games played. That’s a lot of time for most people (I don’t have a wife nagging me every time I start a game, but most men do).

    This makes stats meaningless unless the bracket and time of the game are recorded. They aren’t (but could be if one took a snapshot of all stats every day). This is why I make fun of your claims of superiority based on a 62% win rate in R23-11. Sure, you are clearly superior to SOME players, but who are those? Not me, because I ranked out before you even started. Not the very best players cause they ranked out before me. Not my clan mates, cause they were all R10 and above before you started.

    The only meaningful number in Ranked is the number of days to rank 1. Days, not games. Having finished in 10-14 days means one was good enough to beat R2-5, while the good players were still there. The earlier the better.

    If somebody plays too few games to stay with the curve their stats become mostly meaningless. Myself included, I am not good enough to have 63% win rate if I were playing from the very start of the season. Casuals’ stats are meaningless. R10 stats are meaningless. R11 stats are meaningless. Your stats are meaningless. They can’t be compared to other people cause the playing field was different. Of course, there is a correlation between win rates, XP, damage and skill, but it is too weak to make definitive statements.

    I will have some time later and will explain this with charts, now I need to do some work.

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  5. @Anon: you might as well start talking Chinese, I wouldn’t understand it less

    @Stawek: this “the people get stuck until better players leave their bracket” nonsense was disproved long ago. So few people rank out (merely 3% of the ranked players), that their presence or not in your game is irrelevant. I mean you have 21% chance to have a future rank 1 as opponent and 18% as teammate.

    Also, even if it mattered, they left rank 10 weeks before this snapshot was made at the end of the season. Yet the people listed ended in 10.

    I’m superior to everyone who didn’t progress ahead of rank 10 and those who reached rank 10 with less winrate. It’s indeed not proven that I’m superior to rank 9 players. But those players are already top 5%.

    This “only meaningful number” is elitist crap. The whole rank 1 population (including those who ranked out on the last day) is less than 1% of the playerbase. The idea that you must defeat those who play 10 hours on the first days to be good is ridiculous. A win is a win. A rank is a rank. A last day rank 1 gets the exact same title and rewards as a day 1. If you choose a purposefully harder way to get the same rewards, you are dumb. That said, I’ll get days off work next season start just to prove you wrong.

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  6. Also if you opt for a sophisticated dynamic language like Python, Perl or Ruby. You will have some html parser at your fingertips. So you could iterate over some pages and also parse them in one go and fill some CSV file or small DB like in sqlite or something like that. There are some Parsers that can be used on the shell but I usually fallback to python, because of my background, and use HTMLParse or BeautifulSoup directly. Anything will do, really, use what you think seems the easiest to use.

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  7. @Anon: you might as well start talking Chinese, I wouldn’t understand it less

    Is it really that hard? how do you hold your current job? I thought you had a bit of tech background?

    than make a excel sheet with one row iterating a number from 132 to 238. you know formulas, right? =TopRow+1 and copy the formula down to the number you want. put the static URL parts around that row and copy the whole thing into a text editor and save it.
    now use wget -i file-with-bunch-of-urls.txt and let wget do its thing. voila bunch of funny named files. does the job good enough. I tried to find command line arguments for current browsers to do the job of wget, out of the box they can’t download things.

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  8. This game is pure PvP meaning all ranks, stats and averages are relative. You are not good or bad, you are either better or worse than other players. If you’re better than most you’re good. If you’re better than 99% of players you’re awesome.

    If you finish in R1 you know you are better than all those that didn’t despite having enough time and games played to do it. You don’t know if you are better than somebody who only had the time to play 30 games and ended in R10. You don’t know if you’re better than somebody who never played ranked in the first place. Better here means better at playing the game. If you consider Rank and Rank only then you are creating a metric that displays the skill of getting the Rank and not the skill of playing the game. The skill of getting the Ranks contains in itself the skill of having enough time to play the game at all. It is closely correlated with the skill of not having babies or the skill of not going out with friends on weekends.

    Having a good win rate means you are better than the people you played with. Depending on who they are it makes you awesome, great, good or average. R1 is somewhere between very good and awesome, depending on the timing.

    What would happen if every football team was only allowed to play in the Champions League once? Nothing in the first year. In 20 years time, though, all the best teams would be disqualified making the title worthless. Sure, they’d still be professional players but very much weaker than the ones who got it in the first season.

    “If you choose a purposefully harder way to get the same rewards, you are dumb”
    This is just a very silly statement when applied to a computer game. All the rewards are virtual and worthless. I play WoWs because I enjoy playing WoWs, otherwise, the best way to win would be to not play at all and save all the money and opportunity costs of spending time doing it.
    Playing Ranked early in the season is the best chance to play with and against the best players. Playing itself is the reward, the signals and flags are just the cherries on a cake.

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  9. @Stawek: it’s nihilism. Of course I cannot determine if I COULD beat someone who doesn’t play enough to get into 2-5 or play ranked or WoWS at all. But what could I do besides play ranked and hope that they show up?

    If they choose to not play ranked, they won’t have ranked. Just like it’s possible that the world most talented football player never had the chance to prove himself because he is living rural Mongolia. Should the World Cup winners just say “our title is worthless because we didn’t beat him”?

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  10. No, you keep misrepresenting my statements.

    I am not saying that R1 is worthless. I am saying that it isn’t reliable enough on its own. R1 players are good at the minimum. Probably even very good. But you can’t say they are all awesome and top 1% skill because some of them played in a different environment than the others.

    Just like I didn’t say that time is the only constraint preventing people from getting ranks, not skill. I said very specifically that getting ranks is both time and skill. Skill is the ceiling, time determines where you end exactly within the limits of your skill.

    Again: look at R12 or similar. You will find a lot of players with 25-30 games, good stats and win rates of 55%+. They aren’t in R12 because they are bad, they are there because they didn’t have the time to play more. There may or may not be better than other players, but for the purpose of comparing to yourself, they do not count at all. They simply never had the chance to get to R10 at all so Ranked results can’t be used to determine their skill.

    It all comes down to this one thing: just because only 10% of the server achieved R10 does not allow you to claim that you are top 10% and then deduce that your random performance below top 10% implies rigged matchmaker. Everything else is just to support this claim.

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  11. @Stawek: your final claim is even weaker than the previous. Reaching rank 10 is possible by playing 2 games a day. While there can be people who are “too casual” to rank out despite having the skill, NOBODY is too casual to reach 10. Every single person over 10 is worse than those who got to 10.

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  12. Bullshit.
    Again, look at the stats. Lots of people in R11 with only 30 or so games played. For one reason or another, they chose not to play more.
    You are better at getting ranks, by definition. Fine. In that case, you are worse at Randoms, by definition, cause you have worse win rate. The same logic completely invalidates your claim of rigging.

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  13. @Stawek: yes, there are such players. But since that’s less than 1 game per day, those players aren’t even trying. It’s like claiming “the boxing world champion isn’t better than the guy who casually boxes in the gym” because the guy never ran in a championship so never lost.

    But more importantly. The game has an official ranking system. This is the place where you should compete, per devs. Your options:
    – accept those rules and compete
    – don’t play the game
    – don’t compete and accept being a rankless n00b

    Randoms are “randoms” literally. They are not even MEANT to be meaningful. This is why the 80% winrate AA cruiser + CV premades aren’t fixed. Nobody cares, not the devs, not the players.

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  14. > More detailed statistics could be made if someone would be so good in making scripts to download all 9th season pages and create an excel with the columns “name”, “battles”, “winrate”, “rank”, “average XP” and “average frags”, now that the season is over and the data is final.

    Challenge accepted.

    Like

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