World of Warships random matchmaker is rigged to make you pay. Don’t!

I had near 50% winrate with my new Yugumo in random battles. Then, I had a loss streak of 12 games with only 2 wins, creating this result (click):

Funnily, even during the loss streak I managed to keep 46K damage per game, while the average Yugumo has 35K. The next day the loss streak was over like it never happened, my current stats are 79 games, 31 wins, which means that I played 31 games since the screenshot and won 14, so I’m back to 50% winrate, despite my average damage decreased by 4K.

One might assume that “bad luck happens”, but chances can be calculated. Assuming 50% or 38.7% being my real winrate, these are the chances of outcomes of 12 games:
wins

These are some really low chances at the edges. It’s more likely something happened that day. And not me being extraordinary bad because then my damage wouldn’t be what it is. What happened is that I’ve thrown money to the game to reach the T10 destroyer before the end of the season. Every game I used full set of +XP and credits signals and camo, replacing them for gold. Throwing $5 for an evening of good play doesn’t seem to be in excess. Instead, I multiplied low base numbers due to the constant defeats. The next day I spent all my gold to buy premium time and stopped throwing the leftover on signals. The magical loss streak disappeared.

The reason behind it is that the matchmaker is optimized to rip of players from their money it and (correctly) assumed that I’ll stop paying when I get tier 10, so they denied me victories to make me play more games therefore pay more money. When I cleared my gold stockpiles and stopped throwing money, they reclassified me as a “sometimes paying player” so I’m back to the neither boosted, nor sabotated default group.

I usually advise players to not play games where the matchmaking is rigged, but here there is a simpler advice: don’t pay gold for signals, camo or consumables. You just waste your money, since they identify you as an addict and will sabotate you to make you spend more. Spend money only on premium time and permanent things.

While the random matchmaker being rigged is a concern, as long as ranked battles are fine and randoms are playable (hint: World of Tanks where everyone rushes like a bot is not playable), I won’t stop playing. But sure as hell I’ve stopped paying.

.

PS: It’s always great to meet a blog reader in game. Even when my team are a bunch of drooling morons:
mns

PS2 to Stawek who surely think this as an evidence that DDs must fight other DDs to win:

PS3: this was a good torpedo salvo:
salvo

Author: Gevlon

My blog: https://greedygoblinblog.wordpress.com/

9 thoughts on “World of Warships random matchmaker is rigged to make you pay. Don’t!”

  1. You might be on to something about the matchmaking. I had a god awfull streak in ranked today. Winning smth in the range of 25%, while still doing almost twice the dmg an avarage Kagero does and usually being top2 of my team. Yesterday I had nearly 70% win rate with thehe same ship on the same meta. And sure I might have played worse today, but the diffrence is overwhelming. The other diffrence is I was using signals all day today and sporadically yesterday.

    PS. Also nice meeting you in game 😉

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  2. Back when i played Warcraft 3 competitively, i had these exact same loss streaks that similarly came out of nowhere and went into nowhere again the next day.
    Warcraft 3 had no microtransactions, so i didn’t have that excuse and had to *gasp* git gud (including good at twitch mechanics) instead.

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  3. I guess i should adress the apparent pay-lossstreak correlation. I can’t draw conclusions from just one instance of this pattern happening and wouldn’t recommend you do it. Oddly enough, if you want to properly confirm this hypothesis, you’re gonna have to spend some more 😀

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  4. Since i’ve now made two consecutive posts, might as well go for a trifecta 🙂
    You say that your numbers are fine and use this as a shield against you doing anything wrong. However, that doesn’t mean you weren’t actually doing anything wrong, only that one particular aspect of the game was fine. Normally, pinpointing these less than obvious issues requires detailed replay analysis. Something like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxuCPICp4p4

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  5. leftover on singnals -> leftover on signals
    I used full set of +XP and credits signals and camo – couldn’t understand

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  6. I don’t think it’s rigged this way. Giving such bad beats to paying players looks like an awful risk to me – you might have quit the game then and there, after all. From my personal experience as a salesman, you never take risks with existing customers.
    I have a weak suspicion (based on anecdotal evidence only) that they punish people with low karma by giving them losses (probably by setting matchmaker to make them play in the same team). Did you do anything before that losing streak that made you lose a lot of karma in player reports?
    I’ve had streaks like that myself (both wins and losses) and I never buy anything other than premium time and sporadically ships.

    Random chances like the one you calculated are based on unrelated events. If something happens that causes you to play worse that particular day and you add a bit of bad luck, suddenly getting 10 losses doesn’t seem impossible. After all, with 1000s games played, you should expect to see a 1 in 1000 events every now and then. 4 losses at 40% wr is 1/10000, roughly.

    As for DDs fighting DDs, every game is different. Sometimes it really is the team that fucks up 🙂

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  7. @Maxim: I never had such a loss streak before. It also affected my other ships. The T7 ship couldn’t complete its daily win in 4 games. The T8 did it in 3.

    @Retsep: in the game there are various consumable slots. One for camouflage, this is the strongest, 8 for “signals” and 3 for “consumables”. Most of these have direct combat value and cannot be pay-to-won. There are also ones that increase the credit and XP results of the game. These don’t affect the battle at hand, they increase rewards. These can be purchased from gold. I used those.

    @Stawek: I didn’t have unusual amount of pinks in my battles and the only “reportable” thing I did was not going for objectives with DD, but I kept doing it and the streak went away. There is a little chance that someone who spent so many games suddenly quit. Anyway, while the data is insufficient to make a conclusion, it’s sure enough for me to not spend more money. Especially since I got the Shima which is now idly sitting in the port, since it has no captain. I’ll soon finish the campaign and put Yamamoto into it.

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  8. Thank you for clarification of buff(?) system. In that text, I felt that some word or a comma was missing, making me wonder what could “credits signals” mean. So I think
    I used full set of +XP and credits signals and camo -> I used full set of +XP and credits, signals and camo
    would make that part more understandable.

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  9. You cannot prove a match off a single occurrence. What happened to you isn’t even unusual. Your graph shows about a 2% chance, but you have probably played enough matches for longshot win.
    We always underestimate the likelihood of extreme events. Having said that though, a good matchmaker would manipulate teams to limit extreme sequences.

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